GulfBase GCC Cap Indices
IndexLevelChg%
Large Cap4,040 1.47
Med Cap3,813 1.12
Small Cap4,857 0.75
Micro Cap8,140 0.78

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Ticker Price Volume
QNBK 127 470,450
ETISALAT 17.15 1,265,926
GFH 0.6
DAMAC 3.04 4,480,836
EMIRATESNBD 8 953,900
DSI 0.38 56,023,969
RIBL 10.94 4,342,308

GCC Quants

Source: Kuwait Financial Center - Markaz

Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategies

July – 2009 Review
The GCC markets continue to post positive returns and the momentum in returns look robust. The July return of 3.05% on the MSCI GCC total return Investable index marked the fifth consecutive month of positive return. This comes on the back of ten consecutive months of negative return on the index from May 2008 till Feb 2009. Anecdotal evidence from our discussions with fund managers point out that cash position are continuing to get trimmed. Long only fund managers were cash heavy in the portfolio’s to the extent of 35-40% during the Feb – March 2009 period and are currently looking 10- 15%.

For July, there is a very clear leadership pattern emerging in the nature of returns. Within the six geographies, Saudi Arabia which has the highest strategic weight of 54% (weight for July 09) was providing for only 1/3rd of GCC returns when the markets turned towards its first positive return in March 2009. However, currently this contribution has increased close to 80%. Similarly, between the Large, Mid and small caps the leadership bias shifted towards large caps. Large caps form 64% of the total MSCI GCC index and it provided a paltry 31% of the returns in June. This has substantially increased to close to 100% in July.

Within the sectors too, there is a clear leadership emerging from some of the largest sectors in the GCC. The financials, materials and telecom which have a combined weight of 85% in the GCC index provided to 80% of returns in April when the markets increased close to 17%. This has further increased to almost 100%.

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