14/07/2016 05:36 AST
Amid dismal global growth outlook, bullish sentiment for the gold remains intact with precious metal experts predicting that the yellow metal would rise 10 per cent short-term as they expect it to close in on $1,500 per troy ounce by end of this year, and eventually hitting $5,000 by 2020.
Gold, which has been the biggest outperformer among all asset classes this year, up 26 per cent, is now headed for $1,500 per ounce while silver will overshoot to $30 per ounce with the global economic growth now expected to be slower at three per cent in 2016, versus 3.4 per cent at beginning of year, the global research team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
"The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP (gross domestic growth) growth and gold quotations," BoA Merrill Lynch analysts said.
Many of the underlying issues affecting the global economy are structural, with Brexit merely a symptom of the problems many countries are facing, the bank said.
"To that point, we called a bottom in gold in February and Brexit reinforces our view. As such we are upgrading next year's gold price forecast from $1,325/oz to $1,475/oz. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible," the bank said.
On Wednesday, gold rose marginally, recovering from selling pressure in early trade that pushed bullion to a near two-week low. Spot gold was up 0.7 per cent at $1,341 per ounce after touching $1,327.30, its lowest since July 1.
BoA Merrill Lynch analysts said they are reinforcing the bullish view particularly on gold and silver, which should continue to perform well given subdued global growth and risks that this will skew the public debate towards wealth generation/ distribution, populism and migration, with all the negative consequences this may have on effective economic policy making.
According to precious metal analysts, gold, often viewed as a safe haven in times of economic stress, is also a solid bet when yields are being suppressed by aggressive monetary policy, something that investors might have to carry on persevering following the Brexit vote in the UK.
Last week, gold hit more than two-year highs. The 10 per cent price forecast from BoA Merrill Lynch is bullish but fairly muted compared to some other precious metal analysts.
Gold Stock Bull analysts even predict gold prices to hit $1,550 in 2016, and surging further to $2,400 by 2017 and rally relentlessly to breach $5,000 by 2020.
Money MorningResource Specialist Peter Krauth also predicts that gold price would surge 260 per cent in the next three and a half years, putting it at roughly $5,000 per ounce by 2020.
According to Barry Dawes of Paradigm Securities, gold is expected to reach $1,500 an ounce by the end of this year. He didn't rule out the possibility of it testing the record highs of $1,900 an ounce seen in 2011.
Others pundits are more cautious with their estimates. Societe Generale analysts believe gold could reach $1,350 per ounce in the early part of next year but then drift lower. Swiss bank major UBS sees an average price of $1,400 per ounce across 2017.
Khaleej Times
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