Nifty active futures ended at 5429.60, at a strong premium of over 14 points on Monday. India VIX, which measures the immediate expected volatility, climbed to close at 18.36 on Monday, after touching an intra-day low of 16.60. Nifty PCR OI stands at 1.43.
The option data for active series show the highest OI build-up in 5400 Puts and 5600 Calls, indicating the new trading range for the Nifty. During the past expiry, we observed that the Nifty did not see a spurt, after it breached the 5540 level on short-covering.
Also, Nifty rollovers were at a healthy 76%, hinting at the ‘shorts’ remaining intact. Hence, we enter the September expiry with a cautious view, with bears over-powering bulls.
The market can take a direction if 2Q GDP numbers, to be reported on Monday, don’t come in line with expectations of around 8.8% YoY (Bloomberg estimates) compared with 8.6% YoY for the prior quarter.
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