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شركة قطر لنقل الغاز
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Looking for a Strong Final Quarter with Higher Beta Names
• Performance YTD: Year-to-date, the MENA Focus List has risen 44.7% versus 27.1% for the MSCI Arabian Markets Index and 18.5% for the MSCI Arabian Markets ex-Saudi Arabia Index. The Focus List continues to lag emerging markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark having risen 61.7% year-to-date.
• Increasing High-Beta Names: We see growing institutional interest in MENA markets, which have lagged larger emerging markets in the 2009 rally. We believe that the ongoing resolution of Dubai’s debt overhang should support performance in the UAE and our economists see strong growth underpinned by a fiscal stimulus across much of the region. Fund flows into EMEA and MENA-related funds are positive, and the global monetary environment favours continuing strength in risk assets. We therefore take profits on a number of lower beta names, favouring stocks that we believe will perform well in a rising market.
• Add Emirates NBD: Emirates NBD offers a broad play on the revival of interest in Dubai and, as an important player in the corporate segment, shares should also benefit from a positive resolution of Nakheel’s debt which matures 14 December. Recent 3Q results were ahead of our expectations suggesting upside risk to our full year earnings forecast. The bank is currently one of the cheapest under coverage at 8.1x 2009e and 7.0x 2010e earnings (1.1x 2009e P/BV).
• Add Industries Qatar: 3Q results were well ahead of our expectations and we believe the higher oil price environment will mean further improvement in IQ’s petrochemical and fertilizer margins. Meanwhile, new iron ore price negotiations (at c35% discount to last year) suggest steel margins will rise also.
• Add Oriental Weavers: ORWE has lagged the second leg of the current market rally, and is trading at an attractive 7.7x annualised 1H2009 earnings. 1H2009 numbers were surprisingly strong, with EPS rising 4% Y-o-Y, and we believe the company’s good management strategy (seen in its recent focus on the local market) will be attractive to investors looking for value among Egyptian mid-caps.
• Remove Agthia, EIPICO and SEC: Agthia reported robust 3Q results with revenues up 11% Y-o-Y and earnings up 17%. Valuation remains attractive at just 10.3x 12 month trailing earnings. However, with a lack of near term triggers, and a relative outperformance of 24.7% since inclusion in the Focus List, we choose to lock in our gains. EIPICO has strongly outperformed since inclusion, by 15.5%. We still see the stock as a good defensive name, but see little short-term upside from here. We believe SEC (as a low beta stock) offers limited upside potential in the near term, with the key summer period now closed and earnings numbers behind us.
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جميع البيانات عند إقفال السوق |
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