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الموجز الاقتصادي الأسبوعي
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COMMENTARY
The Pace of Recovery in the US Economy
The "advance" estimate of 3.5% for GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2009 suggests that the longest recession since the Great Depression and the deepest since the 1950s is likely to have ended somewhere around the middle of the year. This means that the economy has at least stopped contracting and has started to grow since that date, although unemployment rate will keep rising.
A growth rate in the 3rd quarter by 3.5% means that the US economy is following a recovery path that is different than the one projected by the IMF. The IMF projected the US economy to contract by 2.7% in 2009 and to grow at 1.5% in 2010. Interpolating the IMF's yearly real GDP data for 2009 and 2010 into quarterly data using Daiz approach (a statistical technique designed for this purpose) shows that the US recession, according to the IMF, would end sometimes in the third quarter. The interpolated data show that the US economy would contract by 0.6% in the 3rd and grow by 1.5% in the 4th quarter. The two figures below show the recovery path implied by the IMF forecasts and the actual recovery according to the "advanced estimates" of the GDP. The first graph shows the real GDP in billions of US dollars, while the second graph shows the q/q growth rate annualized.
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أوربا |
أمريكا |
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جميع البيانات عند إقفال السوق |
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