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موجز للإقتصاد الكويتي
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Recovery in credit and real estate... Budget surplus to reach KD4-5bn
Oil Market & Budget Developments
Crude prices ease back from post-recovery highs... Kuwait budget surplus could reach KD 5 bn in FY2009/10…
After recording post-crash highs in August, crude prices slipped back in September. The price of Kuwait Export Crude (KEC) fell to a low of $62.8 per barrel (pb) on 28th September, down nearly $10 from its peak of mid-August. Some analysts interpret the latest decline as a temporary correction within a rising trend – perhaps the result of sudden offloading by floating crude tankers. These tankers had been delaying deliveries to take advantage of high futures prices.
However more fundamental factors may have played a part too. Firstly, concerns are slowly rising that – as the impact of the exceptional policy measures implemented over the past year fades - the global economic recovery (and hence recovery in the demand for oil) may be running out of steam. Secondly, following their mid-September meeting, OPEC members’ comments appeared somewhat less hawkish than of late, a possible signal that the organization is prepared to live with prices trading in a range below their ‘fair’ value of $75 per barrel (pb), at least in the near-term. Finally, still-high stock levels for some crude by-products may also be capping any upward pressure on prices.
Narrowing of spot-futures spread encourages de-stocking…
The prices of other major global benchmark crude prices –including Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)- also slipped late in September, falling $8-10 pb off their August highs to stand in the $65 – 66 pb range. Despite the intra-month fall, however, September was the fourth consecutive month that average WTI prices have stood within or close to the $65-70 pb range, marking one of its more stable periods of the past three years. It is also worth noting that the average spread between spot WTI prices and contract prices for light crude for delivery in December 2012 narrowed to below $10 pb for the first time in a year in September. This narrowing not only provides an incentive for crude suppliers to reduce inventory levels, but is a further sign that a semblance of ‘normalcy’ is returning to the market.
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