Global economy showing signs of moderate slowdown says IMF

16/10/2025 01:09 AST

The global economy is showing signs of a moderate slowdown after a first half of robust activity largely attributable to temporary factors - such as front-loading of trade and investment and inventory management strategies, says IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

As these factors fade, weaker data are surfacing, it noted.

Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent, the report said.

Inflation is projected to continue to decline globally, though with variation across countries: above target in the United States-with risks tilted to the upside-and subdued elsewhere.

Tariffs and volatile environment
The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025 - such as front-loading - are fading, it said.

"The rules of the global economy are in flux. Details of newly introduced policy measures are slowly coming into focus, and growth prospects are shifting along with them. After the United States introduced higher tariffs starting in February, subsequent deals and resets have tempered some extremes. But uncertainty about the stability and trajectory of the global economy remains acute," it said.

Meanwhile, substantial cuts to international development aid and new restrictions on immigration have been rolled out in some advanced economies. Several major economies have adopted a more stimulative fiscal stance, raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances and possible cross-border spillovers. The world's economies, institutions, and markets have been adjusting to a landscape marked by greater protectionism and fragmentation, with dim medium-term growth prospects and calling for a recalibration of macroeconomic policies.

Shock all around
At the onset of trade policy shifts and the surge in uncertainty, the April 2025 World Economic Outlook revised the 2025 global growth projection downward by 0.5 percentage point to 2.8 percent. This was predicated on tariffs being supply shocks for tariff-imposing countries and demand shocks for the targeted, with uncertainty being a negative demand shock all around. By July, announcements that lowered tariffs from their April highs prompted a modest upward revision to 3.0 percent. '

Inflation projections, while little changed overall, went up for the United States and down for many other economies.

The front-loading is unwinding, and labour markets are softening. Pass-through of tariffs to US consumer prices, previously muted, appears increasingly likely.

Advanced economies, traditionally reliant on immigration, are seeing sharp declines in net labour inflows, with implications for potential output.

Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.1 percent in 2026. This is an improvement relative to the July WEO Update - but cumulatively 0.2 percentage point below forecasts made before the policy shifts in the October 2024 WEO, with the slowdown reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism, even though the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced.

Risks to outlook tilted to downside
Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as they were in previous WEO reports. Prolonged policy uncertainty could dampen consumption and investment. Further escalation of protectionist measures, including nontariff barriers, could suppress investment, disrupt supply chains, and stifle productivity growth. Larger-than-expected shocks to labour supply, notably from restrictive immigration policies, could reduce growth, especially in economies facing aging populations and skill shortages. Fiscal vulnerabilities and financial market fragilities may interact with rising borrowing costs and increased rollover risks for sovereigns.

An abrupt repricing of tech stocks could be triggered by disappointing results on earnings and productivity gains related to artificial intelligence (AI), marking an end to the AI investment boom and the associated exuberance of financial markets, with the possibility of broader implications for macrofinancial stability, it said.