World oil demand likely to grow by 1.4 mbpd in 2018

12/10/2017 10:01 AST

World oil demand in 2018 is anticipated to grow by 1.4 mbpd, following an upward adjustment of 30,000 b/d over the previous projection, due to the improving economic outlook in the world economy, particularly China and Russia, according to Opec Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for October.

World oil demand growth in 2017 is now expected to increase by 1.5 mbpd, representing an upward revision of around 30,000 b/d from last previous report, mainly reflecting recent data showing an improvement in economic activities, Emirates news agency Wam reported, citing MOMR.

Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected oil demand from the OECD region and China, the MOMR noted.

According to the latest data, August 2017 Chinese oil demand registered growth of around 0.34 mbpd y-o-y with total demand pegged at 11.5 mbpd. Increasing LPG requirements for the petrochemical industry in combination with rising jet fuel and gasoline consumption in the transportation sector saw most of the gains.

LPG demand growth exceeded 0.11 mbpd y-o-y with total consumption recording 1.64 mbpd as propane dehydrogenations capacities, PDH, continue to expand. Chinese PDH capacity is projected to reach 3 million tonnes per year (mt/y) in 2017.

''World oil supply in September was revised up by 0.41 mbpd m-o-m from the previous MOMR to average 96.50 mbpd, representing an increase of 1.08 mbpd y-o-y,'' the report indicated.

''Non-Opec oil supply in September was up by 0.31 mbpd m-o-m to average 57.65 mbpd and is now projected to grow by 0.68 mbpd y-o-y in 2017 to average 57.69 mbpd, representing a downward revision of 0.10 mbpd from last month’s report.''

The report said that the non-Opec oil supply forecast in 2018 was also revised downward by 0.06 mbpd to average 58.64 mbpd, indicating growth of 0.94 mbpd y-o-y.

''Opec NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mbpd in 2017, an increase of 0.17 mbpd y-o-y. In 2018, production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mbpd to average 6.49 mbpd,” the report noted.

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