19/09/2017 10:27 AST

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices have increased to $50 and $55, respectively, and bullish oil signs continue to accumulate. Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) just announced that, in July, Saudi Arabia's oil production remained low and stable at 10.013 mbd, and its crude oil exports have dropped to 6.693 mbd. The following graph from Giovanni Staunovo, one of my favorite commodity analysts, shows the severity of the latest drop in Saudi Arabia's exports.

Assuming that exports from Saudi Arabia to the United States dropped in similar fashion and that it takes 45 days to 60 days for Saudi Arabia's exports to reflect in weekly oil inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it would be reasonable to expect continued large crude oil draws in the coming weeks.

A primary reason why Saudi Arabia's exports have dropped so much is that its crude oil stock level is also at multi-year lows.

According to JODI, Saudi Arabia crude oil stock levels fell to a 65 month low of 257 MBBL in June, and according to Mr. Staunovo, dropped further to 256 MBBL in July. Note that Saudi Arabia's crude oil stock level was approximately ~32 mb below its five-year average from 2012 through 2016.


Seeking Alpha

Ticker Price Volume
QNBK 123.29 21,021
SABIC 98.36 2,678,948
DARALARKAN 6.91 23,025,622
PETRORABIGH 13.62 1,724,546
KINGDOM 10.18 49,926
STC 68.60 268,047
WALAA 28.48 318,680
(In US Dollar) Change Change(%)
Brent 58.15 0.27 0.47
WTI 52.04 0.16 0.31
OPEC Basket 56.12 0.29 0.52
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