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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices have increased to $50 and $55, respectively, and bullish oil signs continue to accumulate. Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) just announced that, in July, Saudi Arabia's oil production remained low and stable at 10.013 mbd, and its crude oil exports have dropped to 6.693 mbd. The following graph from Giovanni Staunovo, one of my favorite commodity analysts, shows the severity of the latest drop in Saudi Arabia's exports.
Assuming that exports from Saudi Arabia to the United States dropped in similar fashion and that it takes 45 days to 60 days for Saudi Arabia's exports to reflect in weekly oil inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it would be reasonable to expect continued large crude oil draws in the coming weeks.
A primary reason why Saudi Arabia's exports have dropped so much is that its crude oil stock level is also at multi-year lows.
According to JODI, Saudi Arabia crude oil stock levels fell to a 65 month low of 257 MBBL in June, and according to Mr. Staunovo, dropped further to 256 MBBL in July. Note that Saudi Arabia's crude oil stock level was approximately ~32 mb below its five-year average from 2012 through 2016.
Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, lifted by geopolitical tensions, although rising output in the United States and shaky stock markets put a lid on further gains. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
Oman Daily Observer
Oil slipped as US explorers resumed their drilling binge, raising concerns over whether output cuts by Opec and its allies will be enough to clear a glut despite a pledge from Russia that it’s commit
Oil held above $61 (Dh223.87) a barrel, paring the weekly loss, as investors weighed surging US crude production against a warning from the International Energy Agency of an impending shortfall in gl
Oman’s crude oil and condensate production for February 2018 reached 27,075,580 barrels, with a daily average of 966,985 barrels, according to the monthly report issued by the Ministry of Oil and Gas
Times of Oman
Oil rose slightly higher on Wednesday after strong Chinese factory activity, though concern over the pace of growth in US output, as well as other producing nations, meant there were limited gains.