Dubai gold to hit Dh600 next? How high prices can go in the UAE, worldwide

05/12/2025 02:43 AST

Gold buyers in the UAE may need to prepare for much higher prices over the next two years. A new forecast from Deutsche Bank says gold could rise "close to $5,000 per ounce" in 2026 - equal to about Dh 589 per gram. Even the bank's more moderate estimate points to prices near Dh525 per gram.

Deutsche Bank says gold has been unusually strong and continues to outperform the US dollar. As the bank puts it: "Altogether these suggest an upgrade to our 2026 forecast to $4,450 per ounce from $4,000 per ounce previously, and a yearly range from $3,950-$4,950 per ounce in 2026."

More sound same warning
Deutsche Bank is not alone. Several major financial institutions gave similar forecasts in late 2025, many pointing to rising global tension, government debt and strong demand from central banks.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 target to $4,900 per ounce (around Dh578 per gram) and expects central banks to keep buying large amounts of gold. They also see people returning to gold once interest rates fall.

Bank of America expects prices to reach $5,000 per ounce, matching Deutsche Bank's upper scenario and again pointing to $589 per gram in the UAE. The bank says growing US deficit spending and long-term currency concerns are pushing more investors toward gold.

TD Securities expects $4,400 per ounce, roughly $519 per gram, while HSBC also raised its view to a $5,000 per ounce peak in early 2026. This is one of the rare times when many of the world's biggest banks agree on the same direction - and all of them expect higher prices.

Central banks run the show
One of the strongest forces pushing prices up is the amount of gold bought by central banks. Many countries are adding gold to their reserves to reduce their reliance on the US dollar and guard against global uncertainty.

Deutsche Bank expects these purchases to grow from 853 tonnes in 2025 to 1,053 tonnes in 2026. Demand in late 2025 was already among the highest ever recorded. This heavy buying means less gold is available for regular shoppers, including buyers in the UAE.

It also makes the market tighter, which usually supports higher prices. Deutsche Bank adds: "We see a likelihood of another year of above-model rate of growth in the gold price."

While demand keeps rising, supply is growing very slowly. Global mine production is expected to rise only slightly to 3,715 tonnes in 2026, and recycled gold remains below past highs. When demand grows faster than supply, prices tend to stay firm.

What UAE shoppers can expect
If these forecasts come true, UAE shoppers could see gold around:

Dh466 per gram at the lower end

Dh525 per gram in the expected scenario

Dh589 per gram if prices approach $5,000 per ounce

These would be some of the highest prices ever seen in the UAE. Jewellery would cost more, wedding budgets would rise, and saving through gold bars or coins would require bigger spending.

For shoppers who buy gold regularly - whether for weddings, gifts, or long-term savings - it may help to plan purchases earlier, especially if prices continue rising through 2025 and 2026.

The message coming from major banks is clear: strong global demand, limited supply and rising uncertainty are all working together to push gold higher. And for UAE buyers, that could mean noticeably more expensive gold in the next two years.

Gulfnews