Investors have every reason to cheer - despite tariff chaos

28/04/2025 02:19 AST

From fresh tariffs and fracturing alliances to recession warnings, the headlines scream turmoil. But for investors willing to tune out the noise and focus on the underlying data, there are solid reasons to stay positive, said Nigel Green, the CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world's largest independent financial advisory firms.

According to him, the global picture is far from doom and gloom. In fact, there are three compelling reasons for investor optimism - even as Donald Trump's aggressive trade stance reshapes global dynamics.

Central banks are loosening-and they're not alone
A wave of monetary easing is underway. The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate to 2.25% this month - its third rate cut of the year. India followed suit in early April, lowering rates and switching to an 'accommodative' stance.

Although the Federal Reserve has yet to move, markets now price in at least one rate cut before the end of the year.

But it's not just central banks that are stepping up. Governments, too, are loosening the fiscal purse strings, stated Green.

The EU this week approved an additional ?12 billion in defence spending in direct response to Trump's demands for Nato burden-sharing - a move expected to stimulate European industry and infrastructure.

Germany and France are also rolling out tax incentives for domestic manufacturing, effectively offsetting the bite of US tariffs.

"This is not 2018," remarked Green. "Back then, countries were caught off guard. Now, they're responding with stimulus, strategy and speed," he stated.

Global economy is more adaptive
Despite all the turbulence, global growth is holding. China posted Quarter 1 GDP growth of 5.4% - above expectations and matching Q4's pace - as strong domestic demand offsets trade losses.

Southeast Asia, increasingly caught in the US-China crossfire, is pivoting fast. Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines have ramped up public investment and are courting new trade partners, including deepening regional ties through the Asean framework.

"These countries are investing in themselves," said Green. "They're not waiting to see how the US-driven trade war plays out-they're adapting now," he added.

Even the US, despite recent data showing a Q1 GDP contraction of -2.5% continues to enjoy low unemployment (3.8%), solid wage growth (4.1% YoY), and resilient consumer spending.

And in Europe, the European Commission's updated spring forecast projects 0.8% GDP growth this year, with expectations for stronger momentum in 2026 driven by increased defence, infrastructure, and green tech spending.

"This is not a crisis. This is recalibration," noted the deVere Group CEO.

Markets are looking through tariffs
The S&P 500 and Dow have both clawed back losses from earlier this month. The S&P now trades above 5,460, while the Dow recently topped 40,000 again.

European equities are firming too, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up nearly 3% in April. And emerging markets, surprisingly, are holding their own: the MSCI EM index is flat on the month, buoyed by Southeast Asian resilience.

Investors are repositioning, not retreating. Flows into Asia-focused ETFs and global defence funds are rising, and risk appetite is adjusting.

"There's been a regime shift," said Nigel Green. "But it's one that opens up new opportunities," said Green.

"We're seeing capital flow into the sectors and regions that are best positioned for the next cycle-those adapting fastest to the Trump tariffs, the global power reshuffle, and shifting trade alliances," he stated.

"There's no denying that the Trump White House is reshaping the global economic order," said Green.

"But investors shouldn't confuse change with collapse. Central banks are easing; governments are spending; markets are recalibrating; and countries around the world are learning fast how to thrive in the new normal," he noted.

"The headlines might be alarming, but the fundamentals - if you're paying attention - are actually giving investors reasons to cheer," he added.

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