Oil Updates - prices fall more than 1% on OPEC+ output hike discussion

23/05/2025 01:35 AST

Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday following a report that OPEC+ is discussing a production increase for July, stoking concerns any potential increase in global supply would exceed demand growth.

Brent futures fell $1.05, or 1.62 percent, to $63.86 a barrel by 9:51 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 97 cents, or 1.58 percent, to $60.60.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are discussing whether to make another large output increase for a third month in July at their meeting on June 1, Bloomberg News reported.

An output hike of 411,000 barrels a day for July is among the options under discussion, although no final agreement has yet been reached, the report said, citing delegates.

OPEC+ has been in the process of unwinding its output cuts with additions to the market in May and June and Reuters has previously reported that the group may bring back as much as 2.2 million bpd by November.

Analysts have been anticipating the move and in a note on Wednesday, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said a 411,000 bpd increase from July is the "most likely outcome" from the meeting, primarily from Saudi Arabia.

"A key question will be whether the voluntary cut will be fully drawn down before the leaves turn brown in many parts of the world in line with the original taper schedule," she said.

Prices were already lower in the session after Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday showed US crude and fuel inventories posted surprise stock builds last week as crude imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand slipped.

Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the EIA said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 1.3 million-barrel drawdown.

"The EIA's reported surprise stock builds will have a downward pressure particularly on WTI," said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research. He added this could further incentivise more US exports to Europe and Asia.

Reuters