Qatar's growth outlook strengthens amid global instability: Standard Chartered

22/07/2025 00:58 AST

In its latest report titled "Global Focus - Economic Outlook H2-2025", Standard Chartered said that Qatar's growth momentum is expected to remain intact in H2-2025, supported by robust public investment and a continued commitment to economic diversification.

The report indicated that while Standard Chartered's global growth has been revised slightly to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent earlier in the year, due to ongoing trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, Qatar and the broader Middle East region continue to stand out for their resilience and forward-looking policy agenda.

Standard Chartered's report maintained its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar at 4.0 percent, while raising the 2026 forecast to 5.5percent (from 4.0 percent previously), reflecting increased confidence in the timeline for gas output expansion and LNG export growth.

This revised outlook is above the average market expectation of 5.2 percent and slightly below the IMF's 5.6 percent.

The report sees Qatar's real GDP per capita rising to approximately USD 110,000 by 2026, a level that supports the country's transition toward developed-market status and potential inclusion in various emerging market indices.

The non-hydrocarbon sector, accounting for over 60 percent of GDP, is also expected to be a key growth driver in H2-2025, led by tourism, financial services, and trade. Non-hydrocarbon growth picked up notably in Q4-2024 to 6.1 percent y/y, the fastest pace in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), said the report.

Standard Chartered highlighted the positive impact of new public-private partnership (PPP) legislation, which is likely to encourage greater private sector participation and enhance infrastructure development across the country.

While the US economy shows signs of slowing in H2, due to higher tariffs, weakening sentiment, and constrained fiscal support, and China's export momentum fades following a strong first half, Europe faces recession risks as trade negotiations with the US remain unresolved. Against this backdrop, Qatar stands out for its resilience, underpinned by a low fiscal breakeven oil price and a long-term commitment to economic diversification in line with Qatar National Vision 2030 (QNV 2030), Standard Chartered added.

Commenting on this, Chief Executive Officer and Head of Coverage at Standard Chartered Qatar Muhannad Mukahall said: "Qatar's long-term vision continues to set it apart in a volatile global environment. As a bank with deep roots in the region and a longstanding presence in Qatar, Standard Chartered is proud to support the country's forward-looking policy agenda. Backed by strong fundamentals and a clear commitment to diversification, through Qatar National Vision 2030, Qatar is demonstrating how targeted reforms and strategic investments can unlock new engines of sustainable growth and keep the economy on a firm trajectory in 2025 and beyond."

Moreover, the report pointed out that across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region (MENAP), growth is projected at 3.4 percent in 2025, with the GCC benefiting from the reversal of OPEC+ production cuts and continued momentum in reform. Countries like Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are showing steady progress in non-oil sectors amid shifting global trade dynamics.

The Peninsula