Turkey’s growth is forecast to dip due to lower investment

21/08/2016 05:08 AST

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkey's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at "BBB-". The outlooks have been revised to Negative from Stable. The issue ratings on Turkey's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at "BBB-".

The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at "BBB" and the Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency IDRs at "F3".

The issue ratings on Turkey's Hazine Mustesarligi Varlik Kiralama Anonim Sirketi's (Hazine) Foreign and Local Currency global certificates (sukuk) have also been affirmed at 'BBB-'. According to Fitch, political uncertainty is expected to impact economic performance and poses risks to economic policy. Growth is forecast to dip due to lower investment, although a strong start to the year means that at a Fitch-forecast 3.4 percent of GDP in 2016, it will be above the peer median.

The current account deficit has continued to narrow due to the lagged impact of lower oil prices on the import bill, despite the drop in tourism revenues, and Fitch forecasts it to bottom at 4.3 percent of GDP in 2016, before rising to close to 6 percent of GDP by 2018.

The banking system is consistent with Turkey’s investment grade rating, with a “bbb” on Fitch’s Banking System Indicator.

Average inflation has fallen so far in 2016, due to food prices, but at forecast 8.2 percent remains well above the peer median of 1.7 percent.


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