Week Ahead: Geopolitics Dampen Dollar Rally

24/09/2017 20:45 AST

The US dollar is higher against major pairs at the end of trading on September 22. The NZD and the EUR are the main exceptions with elections in the next 48 hours in both regions. Parliamentary elections will begin in New Zealand on Friday, September 22. The ruling party is making a comeback in the polls and has given the Kiwi a boost, but the Labour party could still come up with a shock upset. German elections appear to be a more predictable affair with Angela Merkel's party the likely to come up on top, but with the rise of the far-right and the need for a partner for a grand coalition, the number of seats of other parties will be of utmost importance.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to call a snap election next week. Rising support as the result of the situation in North Korea has emboldened Abe to call for elections in October. The move is intended to weaken opponents, but like in the United Kingdom, the move is a gamble that can backfire with a new national party offering the biggest threat. His major objective seems to be achieving a majority with the aim of reforming the constitution.

Economic data release will play a part during the week of September 24 to 29, but since no major release will be published, it will be a minor role. In the United States, the Consumer Board will release its Consumer confidence index on Tuesday, September 26 at 10:00 am EDT. US durable goods and crude oil inventories will be published on Wednesday, September 27. The Final GDP estimate will be released on Thursday, September 28 at 8:30 am EDT with a forecasted 3.1 percent.

The EUR/USD gained 0.057 on in the last five days. The single pair is trading at 1.1945 after strong purchasing managers index in Europe beat expectations managing to stop the US dollar that the Fed economic projections had sparked in the middle of the week. The pair also got a boost from rumours that the United Kingdom would seek a softer Brexit alternative, although there was not a clear mention of that during Theresa May's speech on Friday. A softer Brexit scenario and the German elections expected to bring little in the way of surprise brought the single currency slightly higher to end the week.

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