As 2025 ends, Kuwait oil price eases to $61.3

04/01/2026 10:51 AST

By the end of December 2025, the 9th month of the current fiscal year 2025/2026 had concluded. The average price of Kuwaiti oil per barrel for December was around $61.3, dropping by $3.9 per barrel or by -3.9 percent compared to the November's average of $65.2 per barrel. It was also lower by $6.7 per barrel or by -9.9 percent, compared to the new hypothetical price in the current budget which is set at $68 per barrel. December's average is lower by $29.2 compared to the breakeven price in the current budget at $90.5, according to estimates by the Ministry of Finance and following the suspension of the 10 percent deduction from total revenues for the Future Generations Reserve.

Furthermore, the average price of Kuwaiti oil per barrel for the elapsed period of the current fiscal year stood at $68.0, that is lower by $11.7 or by -14.7 percent compared to the average price per barrel of the previous fiscal year 2024/2025, which was around $79.7. It is also lower by $22.5 or by -24.9 percent, compared to the breakeven price in the current budget.

It is assumed that Kuwait generated oil revenues of KD 1.126 billion in December. Assuming that production levels and prices remain unchanged, an assumption that may not hold, total oil revenues for the entire current fiscal year are expected to reach KD 14.910 billion after deducting production costs. This figure is around KD 395.3 million lower than the estimated amount in the current fiscal year's budget, which is at KD 15.305 billion. With the addition of around KD 2.926 billion in non-oil revenues, the total budget revenues for the current fiscal year would amount to KD 17.836 billion.

When comparing this figure to the approved expenditures of KD 24.538 billion, it is likely that the general budget for the current fiscal year 2025/2026 will record a deficit of KD 6.702 billion. However, the dominant factor remains the developments in oil revenues and the potential for savings in expenditures at the end of the fiscal year.

The US and the world
Since President Donald Trump assumed office on 20thJanuary 2025, the world has no longer remained as it once was, nor is it expected to for several years at least. The US president enjoys near-absolute authority following his party's sweeping majority in both chambers of the legislative branch, a conservative dominance in the Supreme Court, and potentially a similar dominance in the Federal Reserve Board. Beginning in April 2025, an unconventional tariff war was launched, extending not only to former adversaries but also encompassing all allies and sparing no neighbors, with no regard for national sovereignty or borders.

Since the United States is regarded as the political capital of the world or the host of the United Nations; the economic capital of the world, accounting for roughly 27 percent of the global economy; and the financial capital of the world, as it is home to the largest financial market and the headquarters of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and most importantly, since the Bretton Woods system established its currency, the US dollar, as the global reserve currency nearly 80 years ago - traditional and familiar research and analytical tools are no longer adequate to determine what may occur in the future, as the remedy has, at one stage, turned into the source of the ailment.

The West and the East
In the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, China and India together accounted for 45 percent of the global economy. By the late twentieth century and the beginning of the current century, the United States and the European Union together represented 51 percent of global economic output. According to 2025 estimates, the share of the United States and the European Union has declined to 45 percent of the global economy, while the three largest Eastern economies - China, Japan, and India - account for 26 percent and Asia holds 60 percent of the global population.

Current global developments point decisively toward the inevitability of a future shift of economic weight to the East. A simple mathematical projection based on differences in growth rates suffices: China recorded average growth of around 5.4 percent during 2021-2025, India 7.9 percent over the same period, while the United States achieved 3.3 percent and the European Union 2.7 percent. Looking ahead, the size of the Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the United States by 2035, and the new US administration's policies may accelerate this eastward shift. The greatest risk of such acceleration lies in the potential threat of shortening the timeframe for damage to the US dollar as the global reserve currency, or precipitating an early leap toward a new global order, with a new financial system and an alternative to the Bretton Woods system.

The world and the region
The region's importance to the world rests on two fundamental factors: its energy reserves and its geographic location, positioned at the heart of the emerging shift toward the East. Both constitute sources of strength if managed with awareness, and timing in adopting prudent approaches is critically important. Fossil fuels - oil and gas - are under pressure to reduce consumption levels and prices, driven by technological progress, environmental considerations, and political factors. Nevertheless, both are expected to remain part of the global energy mix for decades to come, albeit with a declining relative contribution.

Adopting public policies that maximize benefits from these resources while absorbing the negative impact of reduced revenue contributions is no longer optional, and most countries in the region appear to recognize and address this reality. Leveraging the strategic location, alongside financial abundance and developed infrastructure, represents another source of strength if properly invested, enabling the region to become a hub for trade, transportation, and tourism. Three countries within the region already appear to hold strong competitive positions to benefit maximally from the shift toward the East.

The intention here is to highlight that the current era represents a profound transformation of the global order. A similar shift occurred more than two centuries ago when the East lost its economic and political weight to the West, and again about a century ago when that weight moved from Europe to the United States. With every transformation, early adopters of analytical tools, convictions, and strategies aligned in advance with the requirements of the new world stand to gain the most. Many countries have begun formulating and implementing strategies that maximize the benefits of these transformations while minimizing their costs. This is not the case in Kuwait, where priorities do not suggest an awareness of the fundamental realities of global transformation; instead, existing priorities deepen harm and reduce potential benefits.

Kuwait Times