Several experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), International Energy Forum (IEF) and Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reviewed uncertainties affecting the short, medium and long-term markets of oil, including the impact of income levels and prices on demand here Tuesday.
The assessment made by experts was part of the second symposium on energy outlooks organized jointly by the three organizations here.
"The meeting demonstrated the commitment shown by the IEA, IEF and OPEC to furthering cooperation and dialogue in the common interest of all," said Simon Stoddart, a spokesman for the IEF.
The three organizations will produce a full report on the symposium, which will be delivered for consideration by the energy ministers at the 13th IEF ministerial meeting to be held in Kuwait City on March 12 to 14, 2012.
The decision to jointly host the symposium was born out of the landmark energy meetings held in Jeddah in June 2008 and in London later that year.
These annual symposia form part of a wider joint program of work agreed by the three organizations, he added.
He pointed out that this joint program was also endorsed by energy ministers at the 12th IEF meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in March 2010 and further encouraged by leaders of the G20 countries in 2011.
Stoddart said the event gathered experts from a diverse range of energy fields.
A background paper prepared by the IEF and presentations by co-hosts IEA and OPEC on their short, medium and long-term projections set the scene.
"The symposium served to stimulate debate on the methodologies and assumptions applied to a range of regularly published outlooks on the global energy market as well as the degree to which uncertainties influence these projections at any given point in time," said a statement released by IEF.
The statement said the experts also discussed the growing role of non-crude liquids in meeting demand growth; shifting of the geographical structure of demand and refining capacity development.
Several other topics like the methodologies for assessing oil supplies, and importance of timely, accurate data for short-term forecasts were also discussed.
Longer term issues examined included the importance of policy changes, upstream cost evolutions, and the key roles played by investment and technology in generating new supplies as well as the effects of population growth and demographic changes.
Referring to the demand of oil, the statement said both the IEA and OPEC expect robust growth in global oil demand over the medium term.
However, the IEA global medium term oil demand projection is higher than the OPEC's figure by around 1.0 mb/d by 2015.
The higher demand figures by the IEA over the medium-term can be traced to the difference in the base year demand level mentioned earlier.
But, in terms of demand growth IEA medium term projection is lower than the OPEC's growth figure by more than 0.6 mb/d, despite their (IEA) higher assumptions for economic growth.
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