GulfBase GCC Cap Indices
IndexLevelChg%
Large Cap3,991 -0.08
Med Cap3,831 -0.01
Small Cap4,863 -0.26
Micro Cap8,466 0.09

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Ticker Price Volume
GFH 0.49 1,642,170
QNBK 133.5 133,285
AMLAK 1.07 4,593,610
DSI 0.37 10,758,890
SABIC 97.69 2,746,187
BKMB 0.37 624,000
AIRARABIA 1.13 3,611,365

Saudi Strategy

Source: NCB Capital

2010: Position for Outperformance

A Healthy Economy Offers Support to the TASI

• Recent Saudi budget data was stronger than expected, showing 2009 GDP grew by 0.1%. Coming out of the downturn, we believe the Saudi economy is emerging as one of the strongest in the region. A strong oil price and continued government spending should drive 4% GDP growth in 2010e.

• For 2009, oil averaged about $62 per barrel, down from near $100 in 2008. We expect an average price of $80 per barrel in 2010e, well above the estimated budget breakeven of $57/barrel.

• The Saudi government’s $49.6bn in stimulus measures, 13% of 2009 GDP (the largest in relative terms globally) has effectively shielded the economy from the global downturn, helping non-hydrocarbon GDP continue growth at 3% in 2009.

• In 2008, the government had unveiled a USD400bn 5-year investment and development program for key infrastructure projects in the Kingdom. The 2010 budget earmarks SR260bn (USD69bn) on investment projects, 16% above the 2009 budget level. This massive support should support company financials going forward and offer support to the TASI as well.


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