GulfBase GCC Cap Indices
IndexLevelChg%
Large Cap4,019 -0.10
Med Cap3,848 -0.05
Small Cap4,895 -0.24
Micro Cap8,498 -0.25

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GFH 0.5 1,361,733
BKSB 0.14 70,617
DANA 0.62 13,288,208
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DSI 0.39 34,049,322
ALINMA 16.47 22,194,374
SABIC 98.09 2,208,800

Doha Bank

Source: Global Investment House

NII to report CAGR of 17.3% during FY09-13
We expect the bank to shift its focus from risky retail segment to corporate segment of financing. The shift in focus will result in reduction in delinquencies. We expect CAGR of 7.6% loan growth during FY09-13. The higher loan growth is an assumption of improving C/D ratio from 92% in FY10 to 94% during FY13.

NPLs rising but cushioned by increasing coverage ratio
The NPLs have increased from 3.0% in FY08 to 3.2% in FY09, and we expect it to increase to 3.5% by FY13E. We expect NPL coverage ratio to increase from 84% in FY09 to 87% during FY10E and further rise to 120% in FY13E. There will be higher NPL coverage as the largest bank has increased its NPL coverage. As Doha is exposed to retail it will cushion its NPLs by higher coverage by FY13.

Post jump in price, still offers an attractive dividend yield
At the CMP of QR66.2, the stock offers a dividend yield of 5.6% during FY10E. The recent run up in stock price discounts the performance and thus leaves no room for investment. We see the bank shifting its focus resulting in better asset quality ahead. We expect the asset growth to moderate and report CAGR of 6.3% during FY09-13.

Expecting RoA and RoE to be at 3.1% and 22.9% during FY13
We expect Doha bank to report CAGR of 15.5% for net profit during FY09-13. The higher growth in profits will be driving the return ratios of the bank.

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