GulfBase GCC Cap Indices
IndexLevelChg%
Large Cap4,019 -0.10
Med Cap3,848 -0.05
Small Cap4,895 -0.24
Micro Cap8,498 -0.25

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Ticker Price Volume
GFH 0.5 1,361,733
BKSB 0.14 70,617
DANA 0.62 13,288,208
DAMAC 3.85 372,716
DSI 0.39 34,049,322
ALINMA 16.47 22,194,374
SABIC 98.09 2,208,800

Commercial Bank of Qatar

Source: HC Securities & Investment

CBQ: Upgrade on valuation grounds

• Loan growth should accelerate but remain less strong than peers’
• Weakest return profile; should focus on public sector to capture growth
• Capital base weakest of Qatari banks but still more than adequate

Medium return bank: CBQ is the least profitable bank, with a RORWA of 1.6% when adjusted for the gross up for associates. It is less cost efficient than QIB and QNB and its returns should remain lower due to its corporate sector tilt. It has hardly any exposure to North Africa (<1% of assets).

12% earnings CAGR: We expect earnings growth to accelerate to c12% in the next few years from 3% in 2010. We forecast loan growth to increase to 10% in 2011e, 12% in 2012e, and 16% in 2013e and 2014e (after 6% y-o-y growth in 2010 on early repayments), but it should underperform its peers.

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