ADX likely to face neckline resistance at 2,445

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange advanced for the fifth consecutive session yesterday, adding 13.04 points, or 0.54 per cent, to close at 2,424.80.

The index is expected to face neckline resistance at 2,445 points today, and breaking through would enable it to advance towards its next resistance level at 2,600 points. Yesterdays rally coincided with increased trade value which more than tripled compared with the previous session. A total of 149 million shares changed hands at a value of Dh246.1 million.

Real estate and energy stocks dominated the list of active players, with Aldar, Sorouh, Taqa, Dana and Aabar attracting around 75 per cent of the total turnover.

Analysts said local institutions were continuing to accumulate stocks at a slow pace, while speculators had started to take active movements during the past two sessions. They expected that active speculation would continue during the next few sessions on selected stocks.

However, most of the leading ADX stocks are approaching resistance and this could increase profit-booking movements.

Amjad Bakir, trading manager at MAC Sharaf Securities, said he expected the ADX would face neckline resistance at 2,445 points today. "We see this as a critical level for the rally in the market in the short term. At this level we expect profit-booking movements. However, if the ADX breaks through the neckline resistance it will turn bullish and can jump to its next resistance at 2,600 points."

"Leading stocks including Aldar and Sorouh witnessed strong buying yesterday and look very bullish. Aldar is expected to rally to Dh3 and Sorouh can target the Dh2.48 level."

Taimur Saadat, senior analyst at Arab Capital Markets, said the ADX was heading towards forming a bottom in the medium term.

"Local institutions are buying stocks in the market and this is giving a very strong signal for a medium-term bottom. The ADX is projected to rally during the next two months before it retreats again."

Saadat predicted that commodity-based companies, especially energy ones, would witness a very strong rally during the second half of 2009 due to renewed inflationary pressure.

"We expect inflation in the country will reverse its trend and go up starting from the third quarter of the year. Commodity and energy companies will rally due to inflationary pressures very soon."

He expected that heavyweight Etisalat would continue its upward trend to Dh13.80.

"Aabar looks very bullish and is expected to cross Dh2 soon. And Sharjah Cement is expected to reverse its trend and go up to Dh2."

Strong Aabar outing
Aabar opened the session with a gap up, adding more than five per cent to reach Dh1.87 and before retreating gradually to end the session at Dh1.79.

The stock attracted strong buying throughout the session after the company said it had bought a stake of 9.1 per cent in Germanys Daimler for €1.95 billion (Dh9.75bn). Daimler increased its share capital by around 10 per cent with exclusion of subscription rights for existing shareholders.