Brent crude seen averaging $62 a barrel in 2015

01/07/2015 04:23 AST

Oil prices are likely to be stable for the rest of this year and climb in 2016 and 2017 as global demand picks up, shrugging off setbacks from the Greek debt crisis and the possible lifting of sanctions on Iran, a Reuters poll forecast on Tuesday.

The monthly survey of 31 analysts showed North Sea Brent crude is expected to average $62 a barrel in 2015, more than $2 above its average price of $59.29 so far this year.

“Oversupply will ease gradually in the second half of this year, helped by stronger demand and slower production from outside OPEC,” said Carsten Fritsch, senior oil and commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

“If the Greek crisis remains contained, the impact on oil should be short-lived,” he added.

Oil markets took a hit on Monday as investors worried a Greek debt default and the possible departure of Greece from the euro zone could hit growth in Europe and squeeze fuel demand.

Brent is trading near the bottom of its recent range in the low $60s a barrel, almost 50 percent below the highs of 2014 but up over a third from its January low around $45.

Most analysts say the benchmark crude is unlikely to see fresh lows this year.

Eight analysts who contributed to the Reuters May oil poll raised their average 2015 Brent price outlook in the latest survey, while 18 kept their forecasts unchanged.

Brent is expected to rise to $70.80 next year and $75.90 in 2017, the poll showed.

Analysts expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep pumping close to capacity, but they see output from non-OPEC countries limited by relatively low oil prices. The poll forecasts US light crude will average $56.30 a barrel this year and $65.80 in 2016. It has averaged $53.21 so far in 2015.

Analysts said a nuclear deal between Iran and the West would eventually allow more Iranian oil onto world markets, but most said the impact on prices should be delayed.

“It may not be until 2016 before Iran can meet its side of any comprehensive agreement with the Western powers, so a surge in (oil) supply would not be imminent,” Capital Economics analysts said in a research note.

US brokerage Bernstein had the highest 2015 average Brent and US crude price forecasts of $80 and $75 per barrel respectively, unchanged from last month’s poll. BofA Merrill Lynch had the lowest Brent forecast for 2015 at $58, while Goldman Sachs had the lowest 2015 US crude forecast at $52.04.

Reuters