Doubts over Greece add to euro’s ECB-driven frailty

21/05/2015 00:12 AST

The euro slid to a two-week low and a rally in European shares stalled on Wednesday after a Greek official said the country may not make an upcoming repayment to the International Monetary Fund.

The euro’s fall follows remarks from a European Central Bank board member on Tuesday that the central bank could increase the pace of its bond-buying in May and June, bringing its losses against the dollar this week to as much as 3 per cent.

“With Greek government liquidity particularly tight and reports suggesting the IMF payment on June 5 is under question, then we expect further turmoil ahead before any deal is ultimately reached,” Royal Bank of Scotland rates strategists said in a note on Wednesday.

The euro fell as low as $1.1065 early on Wednesday, off almost three cents since ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said this week that the bank may “moderately” increase its bond-buying programme in May and June.

It was last down 0.3 per cent on the day at $1.1110.

The Greek government’s parliamentary speaker said on Wednesday that Athens will not make a payment to the IMF that falls due on June 5 unless it has reached a deal with its creditors by then.

Eurozone government bond yields were also lower, widening the gap between benchmark US and German yields further in favour of the dollar.

The 10-year yield spread moved out to around 169 basis points, marking an increase of almost 20 basis points in just two days.

The dollar was broadly stronger as a result, also supported by punchy US housing data on Tuesday. The greenback rose to a two-month high against the yen above 121.00 yen.



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European shares were unable to draw support from the weaker currency and lower yields, and mirrored the sticky performance of Asian bourses.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, fell 0.4 per cent. But Japan’s Nikkei stock index ended up 0.9 per cent at a fresh 15-year peak, helped by a weaker yen and data showing the economy grew at a 2.4 per cent annualised rate in the January-March period.

That was the fastest pace of growth in a year, beating the consensus estimate for 1.5 per cent.

After Tuesday’s 1.65 per cent surge, European shares paused for breath on Wednesday, unable to get a boost from the euro’s weakness against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty over Greece.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading shares was flat at 1606 points, while Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC 40 and Britain’s FTSE 100 were all down around 0.2 per cent.

European bank shares were in focus were in focus after Switzerland’s UBS paid $545 million to settle with US authorities over currency rigging. Four other global banks are expected to settle later on Wednesday.

US futures pointed to a flat open on Wall Street, following its mixed performance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a slight gain to close at a fresh record high, while the S&P500 edged down, although not before touching a record intraday high.

Data showed that US housing starts in April jumped to their highest level in nearly 7-1/2 years and building permits soared, raising hopes that the economy was regaining strength after stalling in the first quarter but also rekindling fears the Fed would raise interest rates sooner rather than later.

“We believe the minutes may describe a conversation regarding the criteria for a rate hike — specifically, a discussion of the developments required to make Fed officials ‘reasonably confident’ that inflation will accelerate to 2 per cent over the next two-to-three years,” Credit Suisse analysts said in a note on Wednesday.

The consensus among economists and traders points to the Fed raising rates in September.

Reuters