Technical analysis of the QSE index

09/11/2014 07:21 AST

The QSE Index extended its winning streak for the third straight week and gained around 92 points. It was a good week for the bulls, as the index moved higher on every trading session except on Wednesday, when it witnessed severe profit-booking, trimming the majority of its gains. Meanwhile, the index recaptured the 21-day moving average and the 13,584.0 level, making further headway. However, volumes were comparatively less compared to the prior week, which casts a doubt on this bullish momentum. The index will come under a firm bull-grip only if it manages to surpass and sustain above the 13,700.0 level along with the 55-day moving average on a weekly closing basis. Otherwise, the index will slip back toward the 21-day moving average or possibly even lower. For now, both the momentum indicators are stalling, which indicates a lack of clarity in the direction of the index.

The QSE Index continued its southbound journey for the third straight week and ended lower losing around 889 points, caving under sustained selling pressure. Moreover, the index penetrated below 13,000.0 for the first time since July providing a bearish signal. Meanwhile, the sharp losses registered on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday were mainly responsible for dragging the index below many important psychological supports along with the 55-day moving average. This shows that the index is indicating a clear intermediate corrective trend, as it has been recording lower tops and lower bottoms since mid-September. On the downside, the index has its important psychological support at 12,900.0 which should not be breached, if it attempts to rebound. However, any sustained weakness below 12,900.0 may result in additional selling pressure, which will drag the index toward 12,770.0, followed by the 12,680.0 level. We believe the bulls have now been trapped, and the bears may continue to dominate until the index stays below the 13,000.0 level. Further, both the momentum indicators are in downtrend mode with no immediate trend reversal signs, suggesting the continuation of this weakness.

Gulf Times