23/02/2015 06:17 AST
The expected dollar appreciation is likely to have negative implications for the large unhedged dollar positions in many emerging markets (EMs) and lead to a tight dollar liquidity squeeze around the world, QNB has said in a report.
This would, in turn, aggravate the EM growth slowdown and further weaken the global recovery, the report said.
The dollar has appreciated by about 17% against a basket of major currencies over the last twelve months. The main driver of this appreciation has been the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) expected increase in US short-term interest rates later this year, while most other central banks around the world continue to ease their policy stance, QNB said.
The dollar continues to be the main currency for financial and trade transactions around the world. When the greenback appreciates against other currencies, more resources from non-dollar denominated countries are needed to pay for the same amount of financial and trade services provided in dollars.
This essential role of the dollar became apparent during the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when the whole world rushed for a safe haven in the US Treasury Bond market, but there was not enough dollar liquidity available.
The pricing of dollar liquidity became prohibitive, making it difficult to settle many dollar financial and trade transactions. In the end, the Fed had to intervene by opening up bilateral swap lines with other major central banks around the world in order to provide the necessary liquidity to meet the increased demand for dollar.
A similar liquidity squeeze may be in the making now. According to the Bank for International Settlement, credit to non-bank borrowers outside the United States totalled $9.2tn at end-September 2014. This represents an increase in USD exposure outside of the US of over 50% since end-2009, with the largest increase coming from Asia.
Most of this credit growth outside of the US has been driven by the historically low interest rates associated with the Fed’s successive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE). Corporates, in particular, have taken advantage of low US interest rates to fund their operations in dollar. Anecdotal evidence suggests that about USD1.4tn of this outstanding credit is held by Chinese corporates, mostly unhedged for exchange rate movements.
Smaller amounts are also held mostly unhedged by other Asian and Latin American EMs. In India, for example, the Reserve Bank of India disclosed in October 2014 that only 15% of all corporate debt (mostly in dollar) was hedged as of August 2014, compared with 34% in March 2014.
As QE came to an end in October 2014 and the US economy strengthened in the second half of 2014, the dollar started to appreciate. As a result, many of the unhedged corporates that borrowed in dollar during the QE period will now require a larger amount of domestic resources to pay their dollar-denominated debt. This is likely to have a negative impact on their investment plans and operations, leading to a further slowdown of economic growth in EMs. At the same time, the appreciation of the dollar, the expected rise in US short-term interest rates and negative interest rates in Europe are pushing global asset managers to move a larger share of their portfolios into dollar-denominated assets. This, in turn, is increasing the demand for dollar outside of the US, whereas the supply of dollar liquidity US remains limited given the end of US QE.
There are therefore increasing signs from swap markets that dollar liquidity is increasingly becoming more expensive and difficult to secure. Pricing of 12-month swap contracts for offshore Chinese Renminbi has reached an all-time high in recent weeks.
Gulf Times
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