US Dollar Index Gains As Euro Index Runs Out Of Steam

21/05/2015 09:55 AST

It’s been an interesting week for US dollar bears, as the currency of first reserve bounced back strongly, surging higher on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of yesterday’s FOMC minutes, and even the apparent confirmation of a pull-back from a June rate rise, seems to have done little to dent the current bullish tone. However, much will now depend on any comments from Janet Yellen on Friday. With the doves now holding sway, a rate hike late in Q4 or early in 2016 seems the more likely prospect. From a technical perspective it is important to consider the dollar index chart over two timeframes. The first is the daily, and the second the weekly.

If we start with the daily chart, above, the current level at 11,833 is now pushing ever deeper into the congestion phase of February and early March which saw the index trade between 11,750 to the downside and 11,875 to the upside, before duly breaking higher in early March. This is a deep area of price congestion. For any continuation of the current bullish trend it will need to be breached, and if so will then provide the springboard for a more sustained move higher.

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